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Still too early to tell severity of current flu season

Columbian - 10/15/2018

Oct. 15--Early influenza data is starting to trickle in, but it's still far too early to tell how severe this flu season is going to be. Health officials recommend getting a flu shot as soon as possible.

On Wednesday, Clark County Public Health released its Clark and Cowlitz counties influenza update for week 40 (Sept. 30 to Oct. 6) of the year. Clark County influenza positivity was at 3.39 percent, below the active influenza season threshold, and no influenza positive tests were identified in Cowlitz County for week 40.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported national influenza positivity for week 39 at 0.75 percent.

"It's too early to tell one way or the other," said Dr. Alan Melnick, director of Clark County Public Health.

There were two Influenza A type positive tests out of 59 total tests -- there were no type B positive tests. Type A tends to be more severe than B, Melnick explained. Active flu season is defined by the percentage of positivity. Once positive test percentages rises above 10 percent, we're considered in active flu season.

Last year, the highest percentage reached was a little more than 40 percent right around New Year's. The onset of active flu season can vary from year to year. The reports show the last two years active flu season has spiked around late December and early January.

Melnick said people should be getting their flu shots as soon as possible.

"The flu vaccine is the best way to prevent flu, but it can take two weeks to build up an immunity," he said.

Melnick said he would "plead" with people to get the vaccine. He said anyone older than 6 months can get it, and said that if someone has concerns about the vaccine they should talk with a health care provider.

He emphasized how devastating the flu can be, and that getting the vaccine isn't only protecting yourself, but is also helpful to the more vulnerable populations around you.

The 2017-18 flu season was one of the worst in the U.S., according to the CDC. There were about 80,000 estimated deaths, including 180 children -- the most since the CDC started using its latest surveillance procedures. About 80 percent of those child deaths happened to children who didn't receive a flu shot.

In Clark County, the flu killed at least 14 people during the 2017-18 season.

"I just don't understand people's reluctance to get the vaccine," Melnick said. "It's incredibly safe and painless."

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